Will Jac Caglianone win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 11.9pp shift. Directional flow is consistent with new information being priced in; the underlying source isn't tagged in the market metadata.

Resolution status: proposed — verify before treating this as news.

What to verify

• No resolution source was tagged in the market metadata — read the question text on Polymarket carefully before acting.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• UMA resolution status is "proposed". Source-risk is non-trivial — a move that unwinds on settlement isn't really news.