The market moved
-1.4ppin 24h · now 0¢
Will Japan GDP growth in Q1 2026 be at least 1.2%?
Macro · resolves May 19 · vol $0.00
Why
Probability fell slightly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 1.4pp shift. Resolution depends on gdp release — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: GDP release — https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.