The market moved
-2.5ppin 24h · now 11¢
Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 1.6% and 2.4%?
Macro · resolves Aug 17 · vol $41.30
Why
Probability fell modestly down to 11¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.5pp shift. Resolution depends on gdp release — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: GDP release — https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.