The market moved
-0.3ppin 24h · now 5¢
Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be less than -2.4%?
Macro · resolves Aug 17 · vol $0.00
Why
Probability fell slightly down to 5¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.3pp shift. Resolution depends on gdp release — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: GDP release — https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.