Will Jara win by 3-6%?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.1pp shift. Resolution depends on to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2025 chilean presidential election — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2025 Chilean Presidential Election — https://www.servel.cl/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.