The market moved
-4.4ppin 24h · now 16¢
Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by 5–10%?
Politics · resolves Aug 4 · vol $0.00
Why
Probability fell modestly down to 16¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 4.4pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://azsos.gov/).
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.