Will Joe Biden's disapproval rating be 43% or higher on August 15?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.0pp shift. Resolution depends on data published for the day of august 15 — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: data published for the day of August 15 — https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.