Will Joe Biden's FiveThirtyEight approval rating be 38.0% or higher on July 21?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 0¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.0pp shift. Resolution depends on to the nearest previous available approval rating to july 21 — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the nearest previous available approval rating to July 21 — https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.