The market moved
+19.3ppin 24h · now 100¢
Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?
Geopolitics · resolves Apr 19 · vol $0.00
Why
Probability rose sharply up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 19.3pp shift. Resolution depends on nato — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: nato — https://www.oep.org.bo).
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.