The market moved
+13.0ppin 24h · now 73¢
Will July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?
Other · resolves Jul 31 · vol $941.67
Why
Probability rose sharply up to 73¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 13.0pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible sources — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible sources — https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.