Will Justin Bieber's monthly listeners figure hit 130m by August 31?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 70¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.5pp shift. Resolution depends on spotify at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 pm et — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Spotify at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.