Will Kamala lead in RCP by 3-3.4 on Oct 18?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.3pp shift. Resolution depends on realclearpolling.com — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: realclearpolling.com — https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.