Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 15%+?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 27¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 18.0pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting.
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.