Will Kevin Gausman be traded by the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline?

Why

Probability rose sharply up to 96¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 36.6pp shift. Resolution depends on official mlb data — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Official MLB data.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 17.5h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.