Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates hit 2.5% or lower in 2026?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 9¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.4pp shift. Resolution depends on federal reserve — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Federal Reserve — https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm).
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.