The market moved
-2.1ppin 24h · now 8¢
Will Kim Kataguiri win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?
Geopolitics · resolves Oct 4 · vol $1.1K
Why
Probability fell modestly down to 8¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.1pp shift. Resolution depends on nato — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: nato.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.