Will Kyle Schwarber win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?

Why

Probability rose sharply up to 38¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 16.1pp shift. Directional flow is consistent with new information being priced in; the underlying source isn't tagged in the market metadata.

What to verify

• No resolution source was tagged in the market metadata — read the question text on Polymarket carefully before acting.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.