The market moved
-2.5ppin 24h · now 40¢
Will Lake Mead's minimum elevation be at least 1,033 but below 1,038 ft?
Other · resolves Apr 15 · vol $40.00
Why
Probability fell modestly down to 40¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.5pp shift. Resolution depends on data.usbr.gov — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: data.usbr.gov — https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.