The market moved
-29.5ppin 24h · now 11¢
Will Lake Mead's minimum elevation stay above 1,038 ft?
Other · resolves Apr 15 · vol $30.00
Why
Probability fell sharply down to 11¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 29.5pp shift. Resolution depends on data.usbr.gov — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: data.usbr.gov — https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.