Will Lebanon sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?

Why

Probability rose modestly up to 10¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 2.5pp shift. Resolution depends on credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: credible reporting.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.