Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 19¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 4.0pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

Resolution status: disputed — verify before treating this as news.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• UMA resolution status is "disputed". Source-risk is non-trivial — a move that unwinds on settlement isn't really news.