The market moved

-4.0ppin 24h · now 89¢

Will LeBron sign his next NBA contract by August 12, 2026?

Sports · open · vol $265.66

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 89¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 4.0pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible sources — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible sources.
  • Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.