The market moved
-22.5ppin 24h · now 50¢
Will LeBron sign his next NBA contract by July 30, 2026?
Sports · open · vol $861.04
Why
Probability fell sharply down to 50¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 22.5pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible sources — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible sources.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.