The market moved

-22.5ppin 24h · now 50¢

Will LeBron sign his next NBA contract by July 30, 2026?

Sports · open · vol $861.04

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 50¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 22.5pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible sources — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible sources.
  • Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.