Will Lee Jae-myung win between 45% and 47% of the vote in the South Korea election?

Why

Probability fell decisively down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 5.9pp shift. Resolution depends on to the popular vote share won by lee jae-myung — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the popular vote share won by Lee Jae-myung — https://www.nec.go.kr/engvote/main.jsp).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.