The market moved
-4.0ppin 24h · now 5¢
Will Levon Aronian Win the Sinquefield Cup?
Other · resolves Aug 21 · vol $319.39
Why
Probability fell modestly down to 5¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 4.0pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://grandchesstour.org/tours/2026/tournaments/2026-sinquefield-cup/).
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.