Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 8¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 10.2pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.