Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 15%?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 12¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 1.3pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.