Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by September 30?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 68¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.0pp shift. Resolution depends on official government information — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Official government information — https://www.gov.br/planalto).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.