The market moved
-2.3ppin 24h · now 3¢
Will Mamadu Iaia Djaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
Politics · resolves Nov 23 · vol $18.63
Why
Probability fell modestly down to 3¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.3pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — http://www.cne.gw/).
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.