The market moved
-42.5ppin 24h · now 4¢
Will Manny Machado hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
Sports · resolves Oct 11 · vol $201.80
Why
Probability fell sharply down to 4¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 42.5pp shift. Resolution depends on official mlb data — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: Official MLB data.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.