The market moved
-13.0ppin 24h · now 12¢
Will Marcelo Maranata win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election?
Politics · resolves Oct 4 · vol $2.6K
Why
Probability fell sharply down to 12¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 13.0pp shift. Resolution depends on nato — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: nato.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.