The market moved
-11.9ppin 24h · now 12¢
Will Mateus Simões win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?
Geopolitics · resolves Oct 4 · vol $752.89
Why
Probability fell sharply down to 12¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 11.9pp shift. Resolution depends on nato — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: nato.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.