The market moved

+4.0ppin 24h · now 71¢

Will May 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?

Other · resolves Jun 10 · vol $310.60

Why

Probability rose modestly up to 71¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 4.0pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible sources — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible sources — https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
  • Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.
+4.0pp · Will May 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? | Orrery