Will "Mexico" be in the headlines this week?

Why

Probability rose sharply up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 61.5pp shift. Resolution depends on nato — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

Resolution status: proposed — verify before treating this as news.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: NATO — https://nytimes.pressreader.com/the-new-york-times/.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• UMA resolution status is "proposed". Source-risk is non-trivial — a move that unwinds on settlement isn't really news.
• Market resolves in 44.9h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.