Will Moderate Party (M) win between 16% and 18% of all valid votes?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 33¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 10.5pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://www.val.se/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.