Will Moonshot have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of August 2026?

Why

Probability rose decisively up to 41¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 7.0pp shift. Resolution depends on to the company which owns the model with the highest coding score on livebench — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench — https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.