Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of August 2026?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 41¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 28.0pp shift. Resolution depends on to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena — https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.