The market moved
+1.4ppin 24h · now 2¢
Will Márcio França win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?
Geopolitics · resolves Oct 4 · vol $260.70
Why
Probability rose slightly up to 2¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 1.4pp shift. Resolution depends on nato — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: nato.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.