Will NASA estimate a 4% chance of asteroid hitting Earth?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.1pp shift. Resolution depends on cneos.jpl.nasa.gov — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: cneos.jpl.nasa.gov — https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.