Will next reconciliation bill lift debt ceiling in 2025?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.8pp shift. Resolution depends on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by donald trump during the market’s timeframe — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.