Will next reconciliation bill reduce taxes on Social Security in 2025?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 1.6pp shift. Resolution depends on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by donald trump during the market’s timeframe that includes major federal — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe that includes major federal .
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.