The market moved
+2.1ppin 24h · now 5¢
Will Oliver Larkin win the FL-25 Democratic primary by less than 5%?
Politics · resolves Aug 18 · vol $179.94
Why
Probability rose modestly up to 5¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 2.1pp shift. Resolution depends on department of state — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: Department of State — https://dos.fl.gov/).
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.