The market moved
-2.0ppin 24h · now 6¢
Will Oliver Ma win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026?
Politics · resolves Nov 3 · vol $156.82
Why
Probability fell modestly down to 6¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.0pp shift. Resolution depends on nato — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: nato.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.