Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 11¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.4pp shift. Resolution depends on openai's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.