The market moved
+6.0ppin 24h · now 37¢
Will Oregon reach D4 (Exceptional Drought) by August 31, 2026?
Other · resolves Sep 1 · vol $16.97
Why
Probability rose decisively up to 37¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 6.0pp shift. Resolution depends on droughtmonitor.unl.edu — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: droughtmonitor.unl.edu — https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspx?dregion,4.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.