Will Paloma Valencia & Iván Cepeda Castro advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 21¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 4.0pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://registraduria.gov.co).
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.