Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan mayoral election by 10% or more?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 3¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.8pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://www.nec.go.kr/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.