Will Partido Socialista Obrero Español de Andalucía (PSOE-A) win fewer than 21 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Election?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 3.3pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.