The market moved
-10.5ppin 24h · now 5¢
Will Philip Sarnecki win the Kansas Republican Governor primary by at least 10%?
Politics · resolves Aug 4 · vol $165.89
Why
Probability fell sharply down to 5¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 10.5pp shift. Resolution depends on nato — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: nato — https://sos.ks.gov/).
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.