The market moved

+53.9ppin 24h · now 100¢

Will Powell say "Pardon Me" or "Sorry" during speech on October 14?

Macro · resolves Oct 14 · vol $0.00

Why

Probability rose sharply up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 53.9pp shift. Resolution depends on what has aired up to that point — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: what has aired up to that point — https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/calendar.htm).
  • Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.